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A major U.S. national-security bill is at risk of spectacular collapse. What happens next?

A major U.S. national-security bill is at risk of a spectacular collapse Wednesday, leaving fragments of unfinished business strewn across several continents. Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and the U.S. border — they're all in the bill Republicans are ditching. Here's how we got here and what's likely to happen next.

Funding for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and the U.S. border — all in a bill Republicans are ditching

Alexander Panetta · CBC News(Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)

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A far-reaching legislative effort risks exploding in spectacular fashion in a Wednesday afternoon vote in the U.S. Senate.

Fragments of unfinished business would be left strewn across the political landscape: Migration reform, weapons for an increasingly desperate Ukraine, and security aid for Taiwan and Israel.

It's all part of a sweeping national-security bill Republicans spent months negotiating, a bill with numerous Republican priorities, backed by the Republican-supporting Border Patrol union, and by Republican Wall Street Journal editorialists, and it could soon be killed — by Republicans.

"Why? A simple reason: Donald Trump," U.S. President Joe Biden said Tuesday. "Because Donald Trump thinks it's bad for him politically." 

Trump and his allies have been pushing elected Republicans to block the legislation, arguing that it helps Biden in an election year. American lawmakers are already looking past the near-certain failure of the bill for ways to salvage its broken pieces.

Here's how we got here.

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Anatomy of a 4-month saga

Last fall, Ukraine started running low on U.S.-supplied weapons. The Biden administration urged Congress to renew funding for a program with two goals: Send old U.S. weapons to Ukraine, and buy new ones for the U.S.

Republicans grew increasingly skeptical. Several asked the question: Why spend billions more protecting Ukraine's border, and not America's?

So, Biden suggested a compromise — put everything in one bill. 

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In a prime-time addressafter the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel, the president proposed a broad national-security law that would tighten American borders while delivering military assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.

Negotiators spent four months working on it. They met nights, weekends and through the Christmas holidays, said a furious lead Democratic negotiator, Sen. Chris Murphy.

What Republicans don't like

There are several elements Republicans dislike. It's not nearly as restrictive as a separate border bill, which Republicans passed months ago in the House but that doesn't stand a chance of passing the Senate.

For starters, this bill doesn't force the completion of Trump's Mexico border wall. Also, in the above-mentioned border-shutdown provision, there's a loophole allowing the president to suspend the measure for up to 45 days if he deems it in the national interest.

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The bill also provides up to $1.4 billion to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for use by NGOs, which help undocumented migrants. 

While it tightens the ways migrants can be temporarily released into the U.S., it does not set a hard maximum cap on use of so-called parole.

In any case, it all appears doomed.

Republican leadership facing rebellion

It was always a longshot that the bill would be passed in the Republican-led House. But some advocates hoped it would get through the Senate, then either through negotiation or some parliamentary procedural manoeuvre, someone might force a vote on the House floor.

But Republican leaders in the Senate have all but conceded defeat. In fact, they're now suggesting they'll vote against it because it's pointless.

And they're facing a rebellion just for trying to pass it: A handful of Senate Republicans, including Ted Cruz, held a news conference to trash their own leadership. 

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Cruz suggested it was time for Mitch McConnell to resign as GOP leader, blaming him for forcing the party into an embarrassing predicament.

The Senate must vote on whether to advance the bill to the debate stage. The vote is expected Wednesday afternoon and needs 60 per cent to pass, but there's no sign of Republicans delivering the necessary votes.

Top Republicans appeared to have declared the bill dead, with McConnell saying the politics had changed and there was no real chance of it becoming law.

But then, he and several Republicans suggested a next step: Holding a separate vote on the foreign-assistance portion, on Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.